The City of Alameda has released its analysis of what will happen to local traffic once the Point is developed. The impact of Alameda Point’s redevelopment on traffic is a key concern for both the developer and for many Alamedans.
The Alameda Point Development Initiative Election Phase II Preliminary Traffic Impact report compares the expected traffic generated from the SunCal Revitalize Alameda Point plan with Transportation Demand Management (TDM) strategies (a.k.a. traffic mitigations), the Revitalize Alameda Point plan without TDMs, and the current General Plan for the Point. All three scenarios are analyzed based on cumulative conditions at build-out in 2035. The report does not consider no development at the Point as an option.
To make the plan easily understandable, the report includes estimated commute times to compare the impact of the plans.
The most impact to commute time will be from Alameda Point to 880 via the Posey Tube during the AM Peak commute. The report says that at build-out (in 2035), the Revitalize Alameda Point plan with TDMs could increase AM Peak commute time from Alameda Point to 880 via the Posey Tube by about 4 minutes and 4 seconds over the General Plan scenario (table 14, page 25). The report also looked at other key intersections, including the intersection of Tilden, Blanding and Fernside. The AM Peak commute time there could increase with the SunCal plan with mitigations by 30.3 seconds over the commute time of the General Plan (table 10, page 19).
It is important to note that this report did not take into account many of the mitigations proposed under the Revitalize Alameda Point plan, making the numbers come out much more conservative, or higher, than they would with additional mitigations in place. SunCal’s proposed mitigation strategies are flexible so that as build-out continues appropriate alterations or additions in mitigations can be implemented. The Alameda Point Revitalization Initiative plan’s phasing strategy enables planners to come up with the best mix of strategies for each phase of the development so that new phases of the build-out proceed along with appropriate strategies to address the traffic needs at the time.
The report also does not consider the changes in working habits that America has seen over the last few years and how these trends will affect traffic. For example, telecommuting has increased 74% since 2005 (source: Telework Research Network). The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that there are currently over 18.3 million home-based businesses in the United States. What will the landscape look like in 2025? The traffic report assumes that transportation patterns in 25 years will be identical to today’s, but current driving patterns are likely to change.
One also wonders what the impact of future fuel costs might have on commuting. Gasoline will probably get more expensive in the future, putting more pressure on people to telecommute, chain together trips, and use non-automotive forms of transportation.
AAPR recognizes that the City must base its report on current transportation use patterns and commends the City for providing Alamedans with a conservative scenario for what they can expect in the future in terms of traffic due to development of Alameda Point.
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